This private half-day forum will bring together senior leaders from major international banks, insurers and regulators to explore the challenges of growth, stability and risk at the end of the credit cycle. Participants can expect a morning of lively exchanges and in-depth discussion on the global credit landscape, the impacts of regulatory changes in the US and Europe, and the impact of a volatile and uncertain geopolitical picture on risk outlook globally.
FT-Fitch Global Banking Conference 2019
Navigating the Late Credit Cycle
In Association With
The steady growth that banks and businesses have enjoyed in the last decade is slowing, and there is widespread feeling that a new, unspecified crisis is waiting in the wings. Central banks around the world are predicting the slowest growth rates since the financial crisis in 2009, and the European Commission has cut its forecast for Eurozone expansion due to “weak momentum”. Combined with falling business investment and greater caution amongst consumers in the world’s largest economies, murmurs about a recession in the next twelve months are growing louder.
Central banks are already responding. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of India and others are retreating from plans for multiple interest rate rises, pivoting in a markedly dovish direction to prolong the credit cycle. Looser monetary policy is expected to endure until there are signs of a renewed global upswing – but how likely is this at this stage of the credit cycle? What opportunities are there for profitability in this tricky environment? What new avenues for value creation are available to banks, insurers and other financial players?
Chaired by Financial Times journalists, this invitation-only forum will bring together leaders from international banks, insurers and other major financial institutions to explore the challenges of growth, stability and risk at the end of the credit cycle. Participants can expect a morning of lively exchanges and high-level discussion on today’s lending landscape, the emerging threats altering the global risk outlook, and the opportunities for growth in a volatile and uncertain market.
Agenda - 4th Jun
8:00amRegistration and Breakfast
8:50amFT Opening Remarks
Martin Sandbu, European Economics Commentator, Financial Times
8:55amWelcome from Fitch
Kevin Duignan, Global Group Head for Financial Institutions, Fitch Ratings
9:00amIn Conversation with the FT: The Macroeconomic Outlook
Global trade is decelerating sharply; gauges of Chinese business activity are softening; US confidence has been hit by new tariffs and the Federal shutdown. What do geopolitical developments mean for the world’s major economies, and how can financial institutions navigate these changes? How can banks and investors predict nascent political shifts and mitigate their impact?
James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign and Supranationals, Fitch Ratings
Interviewed byMartin Sandbu, European Economics Commentator, Financial Times
9:30amMonetary Policy Keynote: Betting on a Bear
With inflation rising and policy normalisation underway, how much of a dilemma does slowing global growth pose for central banks pursuing loose monetary policy? Should the financial sector count on central banks as a backstop in the next crisis?
Sir Paul Tucker, Chair, Systemic Risk Council and former Deputy Governor, Bank of England
Q&A moderated by Silvia Pavoni, Economics Editor, The Banker, Financial Times Group
9:55amPanel: The Lending Landscape
In the decade since the financial crisis, big banks around the world have been squeezed by tougher rules, forcing them in many cases to pull back from lending. With more vigilant regulators and a landscape pot-holed with risks, can banks steal lending back? And if so, have post-crisis measures been enough to reduce systemic risk?
With big banks unable or unwilling to lend to some parts of the economy, non-banks stepped into the void. But with fewer obligations to hold vast amounts of liquidity, and investors free to pull allocations any time they like, are non-bank lenders more susceptible to runs? If so, what will the consequences be as the economy tilts towards recession?
Bank consolidation: why is it necessary, what are the obstacles, and how much further does the sector need to go? How does it differ across regions?
Leveraged loans: how much of a risk does this growing market pose to investors, for example with the increase in ‘covenant-lite’ agreements? Should we expect a liquidity crunch if over-indebted companies struggle to make payments – or are the markets’ fears about them based on fiction rather than fact? Given the backdrop of loosening monetary policy in both the US and Europe, are leveraged loans really a more lucrative way to lend than high-yield bonds? How will a future economic downturn affect investors in this asset class?
Hanna Lenart, Global Head of Capital and Liquidity, ING
James Longsdon, Head of EMEA Bank Ratings, Fitch Ratings
Alicia Reyes, Head of EMEA, Wells Fargo Securities
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Securities
Moderated by Stephen Morris, European Banking Correspondent, Financial Times
11:00amFireside Chat: How is Shadow Banking Reshaping the Industry Globally?
With fewer liquidity obligations and investors free to pull allocations any time they like, are non-banks riskier than traditional banks? Will they become even more susceptible to failure – and if so, what will the regulatory response be? China has shown a decrease in shadow financing, will this trend continue?
Nathan Flanders, Global Head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions, Fitch Ratings
Rhydian Lewis, CEO, Ratesetter
Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist and MD, ICBC Standard Bank
Moderated by Silvia Pavoni, Economics Editor, The Banker, Financial Times Group
11:45amThe Coming Storm: Assessing Future Threats as the Credit Cycle Ends
When is the next crisis coming, what will cause it, and is the global financial system adequately set up to cope with it?
Systemic risk has moved out of the banks post-crisis. How should senior leaders assess new potential threats looming on the horizon? How likely is it that bond mutual funds or leveraged loans, for example, will be the catalyst for the next financial crisis?
What are the key elements of today’s shifting regulatory landscape? How will regulators respond to the end of the credit cycle, and can they protect the financial system from the coming storm?
NBFIs: what can banks expect in terms of action to monitor and regulate the activities of fintechs and nonbank lenders?
Risk mitigation 2.0: what legislation is needed to keep on top of money laundering, terror financing and cross-border financial crime? How should the industry tackle the fast pace of criminal development vs the relatively slow pace of new regulation?
Cynthia Chan, Group Credit Officer, Global Financial Institutions & Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings
Karin Dohm, Global Head of Government & Regulatory Affairs, Deutsche Bank
Emma Hagan, Chief Risk Officer EMEA, Silicon Valley Bank
Caroline Meinertz, Partner, Financial Regulation, Clifford Chance
C.S. Venkatakrishnan, Global Chief Risk Officer, Barclays
Moderated by Chris Giles, Economics Editor, Financial Times
12:30pmKeynote Interview: Where Will Future Opportunities Come From?
Industry commentators predict that banks face an alarming risk of failure by 2030 if they continue to maintain 20thcentury business and operating models. New competitors, such as fintech companies and other non-traditional players, are already gaining market share. How can banks prioritise revenue growth and adapt in light of 2019’s risky and uncertain landscape? What strategies should banks be considering in order to remain profitable and successful? What responsibility do banks carry for encouraging a more inclusive, resilient financial system?
Michael Cole-Fontayn, Chairman, AFME, Chairman, CISI and former Chairman EMEA, BNY Mellon
Interviewed by Stephen Morris, European Banking Correspondent, Financial Times
12:55pmFT Closing Remarks
Stephen Morris, European Banking Correspondent, Financial Times
Who Will I Meet?
This event will gather over 200 senior executives from across banking and financial services as well as corporate treasurers and regulators.
Complimentary places are available to:
- C-Level executives including CEOs/CFOs/CROs/CCO/CIO
- Directors and Heads of Strategy, Credit, Research, Analyst, Debt Capital Markets, Capital Optimisation, Rating Agency, Capital Structure Advisory, Risk
- Senior regulators and policymakers
If this fits your profile, please register now for your complimentary place.
Cynthia Chan is Group Credit Officer for Global Financial Institutions in the Credit Policy Group. Her team is responsible for focusing on the largest credit risks in Fitch’s rated portfolio for banks, non-bank financial institutions and insurance. Previously, she was Head of the Credit Market Commentary team Fitch Wire, which offers rapid Fitch opinion on the most important events affecting the global credit markets.
Cynthia joined Fitch Ratings in 2005 in its EMEA Financial Institutions group, where she covered bank and non-bank financial institution ratings in the UK, Ireland and Netherlands. Prior to joining Fitch, Cynthia was an analyst at Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs. She started her career at PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Cynthia graduated from Corpus Christi College, Oxford, and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
Karin Dohm heads the Government and Regulatory Affairs department of Deutsche Bank In that capacity she drives DB’s regulatory strategy and engagement with key regulators, politicians and other external stakeholders. She also leads the oversight and control over the implementation of key regulatory initiatives as well as the continuous reconfiguration of the Group addressing Deutsche Bank’s legal entity structure for operating and service entities as well as its booking model. Before taking on this role she was the CFO for the Global Transaction Banking of Deutsche Bank and previously she was the Chief Accounting Officer of DB Group. Before joining Deutsche Bank in 2011, Ms Dohm was a Partner at Deloitte. She has vast experience from more than 15 years as an auditor and tax advisor in transaction advisory services, optimising internal and external reporting processes and auditing the financial statements of clients such as financial services institutions, investment firms, as well as real estate and travel and leisure companies.
In addition, she represents Deutsche Bank in a number of industry related bodies, such as the Board of the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG), the Association of German Banks (BDB) and the European Banking Federation (EBF). Outside of DB, she is a member of the Supervisory Board and the Audit Committee of Ceconomy AG (formerly Metro Group), a publicly listed MDAX company. She is also Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board and head of the Audit Committee of Deutsche Euroshop AG, another MDAX listed company that invests solely in shopping centres. Ms Dohm studied Economics, Politics and Philosophy in Münster, Saragossa and Berlin.
Kevin Duignan is Global Group Head for Fitch’s Financial Institutions Rating groups. This global group rates banks, finance and leasing companies, securities firms, investment managers, insurance companies and bond funds around the globe. In his role, Kevin is responsible for managing the global staff, overseeing all rating-related functions including criteria, research and analytical development, and for interacting with a variety of market participants around the world. Kevin’s previous responsibilities at Fitch over the past 25 years include heading the Global and US Structured Finance efforts, heading Global Corporate Communications and leading the US ABS group.
Before joining Fitch in 1993, Kevin was a manager and credit analyst in Citibank’s treasury credit department and mortgage conduit area. He received a BSc in management from Tulane University, Louisiana.
Emma Hagan is the Chief Risk Officer of Silicon Valley Bank for EMEA, responsible for regulatory relations and compliance, risk management and oversight, anti-money laundering, sanctions and fraud for the region. She is also a member of the governing body of the UK bank. Emma joined SVB in 2010 to work on the licensing and subsequent launch of the UK commercial banking branch and then to run its risk and compliance functions. During her time at SVB, Emma has also spent time in the SVB Financial Group headquarters in California as the Interim Head of Enterprise Risk Management for the group with responsibility for model risk management, operational risk management and the enterprise risk management programmes. Emma was previously at Bank of Scotland, now part of Lloyds Banking Group. There, she managed portfolio of large corporate clients including financial analysis, structuring, negotiation, general banking and business development and has experience in acquisition financing, IPOs, growth financing and working capital financing across a variety of sectors including financial services, manufacturing, retail and technology. Emma is ACIBS (Associate Chartered Institute of Bankers in Scotland) qualified and holds a degree in Law from the University of Bristol.
Nathan Flanders is a managing director and Global Head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions ratings group. He also heads up the Fund and Asset Manager ratings group. His areas of oversight include ratings assigned to securities firms, finance and leasing companies, traditional and alternative investment managers, business development companies, financial market infrastructure companies, money market funds, closed-end funds and bond funds.
Nathan was the US Head of Fitch’s Non-Bank Financial Institutions Ratings group until 2016, and prior to this held the role of US Head of Fund and Asset Manager Ratings group between 2008 and 2011. Since 2009, Nathan has also been a member of the Employee Benefits Committee, which is responsible for oversight of the company’s US employee 401(k) plan. Nathan earned a BA in Economics from Trinity College and an MBA from Columbia. He is also a graduate of the Hearst Management Institute, the executive training program of Fitch's parent company, the Hearst Corporation.
Hanna Lenart is the Global Lead of the Capital & Liquidity Expertise Centre in ING Wholesale Banking. CLEC is pivotal in creating and preserving value in ING’s lending portfolios with focus on credit models, funding and liquidity management, pricing, portfolio analytics, supervisory and regulatory developments in lending. Hanna is an experienced strategist with knowledge of corporate finance including target valuation, portfolio review, divestment planning and joint ventures structuring. She has been with ING since 2016, when she joined as a Corporate Strategist for Wholesale. Prior to this she held roles at McKinsey, most recently as a partner serving Financial Institutions on Corporate Finance and Strategy topics. Hanna holds MSc in Economics from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium and from the University of Warsaw.
Rhydian Lewis founded RateSetter in 2010 having witnessed the continued failure of the financial system to act in the interests of customers. He saw an opportunity to narrow the spread between what investors earn and what creditworthy borrowers pay, and deliver greater value in a simple way. In the RateSetter market the rates are set by investors and borrowers, not by committees or banks. Mr Lewis has pioneered many ‘firsts’ in marketplace lending, such as the Provision Fund concept. RateSetter’s Provision Fund has ensured that after lending more than £1bn over five years, no individual RateSetter investor has lost a penny – a unique feat amongst major peer-to-peer lending platforms. Mr Lewis graduated from Bristol University with a double first in Modern Languages. Prior to founding RateSetter, he spent six years at investment management firm Lazard.
James Longsdon is a Managing Director in Fitch Ratings’ Financial Institutions group. He became co-Head of EMEA Financial Institution Ratings in 2010 and Head of EMEA Bank Ratings in 2018. He joined Fitch in 2000, initially responsible for bank ratings in Russia and CIS before moving onto developed market banks (UK and France) and EMEA non-bank financial institutions.
Prior to joining Fitch, James was an auditor in the financial services division of PricewaterhouseCoopers. He earned a BA in Russian Studies from the University of Bristol and has been a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales since 1998.
James McCormack is a managing director and Global Head of Sovereign and Supranational Ratings, based in London. He re-joined Fitch in 2013 from the Bank of Canada where he held a senior credit role. Prior to this, he spent three years with Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong where he was an executive director in credit risk management and advisory. Mr McCormack joined Goldman Sachs in 2010 from Fitch, where he held various senior roles in the Sovereign Ratings Group, including Head of the Asia-Pacific Sovereign team. Prior to joining Fitch, he was a country risk analyst for Export Development Canada and an economist for the Department of Foreign Affairs in Ottawa. Mr McCormack began his career as an economist at Wharton Econometrics (WEFA) Canada. He earned an MA in International Economics from the University of Toronto after gaining his BA at York University, Canada.
Caroline Meinertz is London-based partner in the financial regulation group at Clifford Chance LLP, advising many of the world's leading financial institutions on the impact of regulatory change on their business.
Alicia Reyes is Head of Wells Fargo Securities EMEA, responsible for EMEA’s strategic direction and the development of WFS’ products and services. She is CEO of Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, CEO of Wells Fargo Securities Europe S.A. and a member of the Management Committee for Wells Fargo Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Bank’s London branch. Prior to joining WFS, Alicia was a founding partner of Olympo Capital, an independent merchant banking firm serving the leading private equity and hedge funds in Europe. Prior to that, she worked at Barclays where she spent seven years as a managing director responsible for Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities structuring for financial institutions globally. She also served as Head of Insurance Solutions globally and European Head of Strategic Equity Derivatives.
Additionally, Alicia held roles in the Markets Division as Global Head of Private Equity, Head of the Latin America cross border distribution teams and Head of Iberia Sales at Barclays. Before joining Barclays in 2006, she spent five years at Bear Stearns in London as Senior Managing Director and country manager for Iberia. She was Bear Stearns’ nominated Director at TDA (Spanish Securitization Agency) and Marco Polo (largest venture capital fund in Spain), and a member of the European Executive Committee. Alicia started her career at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt working in Derivatives and the Global relative Value Desk in London. She also spent three years in the US as CIO of the private equity TMT fund Telvent and as CFO of Abengoa Energy between 1999 and 2002.
Alicia earned a PhD in Quantitative Methods and Financial Markets from ICADE (Madrid). She also earned a double degree in Law and Economics from ICADE.
Torsten Slok joined Deutsche Bank Securities in 2005. His Economics team has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor in fixed income and equities since 2010. He currently serves as a member of the Economic Club of New York. Prior to joining the firm, Torsten worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. in Paris in the Money & Finance Division and the Structural Policy Analysis Division. Before joining the OECD he worked for four years at the IMF in the divisions responsible for writing the World Economic Outlook and for China, Hong Kong, and Mongolia. He studied at the University of Copenhagen and Princeton University. He has published numerous journal articles and reviews on economics and policy analysis, including in Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, and The Econometric Journal.
Sir Paul Tucker
Sir Paul Tucker is chair of the Systemic Risk Council, and a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is writing a book on the place of unelected power in democracies, contracted with Princeton University Press. Previously, he was Deputy Governor at the Bank of England, sitting on its monetary policy, financial stability, and prudential policy committees. Internationally, he was a member of the G20 Financial Stability Board, leading its work on too big to fail; a director of the Bank for International Settlements, and chair of its Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems. His other activities include being a director at Swiss Re, a senior fellow at the Harvard Center for European Studies, a Visiting Fellow of Nuffield College Oxford, and a Governor of the Ditchley Foundation.
CS Venkatakrishnan joined as Chief Risk Officer in early 2016. Venkat is responsible for helping to define, set and manage the risk profile of Barclays. He heads the risk management organisation across the group, has oversight responsibility for Compliance, and is a member of the Group Executive Committee. Venkat has 25 years of financial market and risk management expertise. He previously worked at JP Morgan Chase, from 1994, holding senior roles in risk, investment banking and asset management. He is the executive sponsor for Embrace, the global multi-cultural network at Barclays, and he holds BSc, MSc and PhD degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Jinny joined ICBC Standard Bank in early 2016 as Chief China Economist, and leads the China markets strategy and research team. Her focus is to deliver China macroeconomic and market insights to internal and external stakeholders. Her team launched the Belt and Road Economic Indices, which offers unique insight into China’s increasing connectivity with emerging Economies. Prior to joining ICBCS, Jinny was a London-based Senior Economist at Standard Chartered Bank. She covered key China-Europe macro topics with a focus on Renminbi internationalisation. Her previous economist roles include covering China based in Shanghai, Europe, and supporting the Chief Economist. Heading up the European RMB Solutions team, she chaired the Education and Marketing stream of the City of London’s Renminbi initiative. Widely recognised as a China and Renminbi expert in London, she makes frequent appearances in media and at high-level conferences. Jinny has a BA (Hons) in Economics from the University of Durham and a Masters of Development Studies from the London School of Economics.
FT Moderators (4)
Chris Giles is the Economics Editor of the Financial Times. He leads the reporting of economics in the newspaper and on FT.com, and has been economics editor since 2004.
He reports on international economic trends and the British economy, and contributes comment to FT.com’s premium blog, dedicated to central banking and money supply. He was previously the FT’s leader writer on economic affairs.
Mr Giles was named Business Journalist of the Year at the British Journalism Awards 2012. He has also won the Royal Statistical Society’s prize for excellence in journalism in 2008 and 2012. He is a member of the 2014 advisory board of the Journal of the European Economic Association.
Before becoming Economics Editor, he spent a year at the communications regulator, Ofcom, writing reports about digital switchover and public service broadcasting.
Prior to joining the Financial Times in 2000, Mr Giles was an economics reporter at the BBC. He started his career in research, spending seven years as an economist for the Institute for Fiscal Studies and has a wide publications record. At the IFS he led or worked on projects for clients including the Treasury, the OECD and the European Commission.
Mr Giles is a graduate of Cambridge University and holds a Master’s degree in economics from Birkbeck College, London University.
Stephen Morris is the Financial Times' European Banking Correspondent. He joined the FT in August 2018 after eight years with Bloomberg News, where he was UK Banks Reporter. Prior to that, he covered politics for the Independent. He studied at Durham and Cambridge universities, where he read history.
Silvia Pavoni is the Economics Editor of The Banker, a monthly publication part of the Financial Times group, for which she has written on international trade agreements, sovereign debt crises, capital markets and financial technology. Ms Pavoni is in charge of The Banker’s Latin America section, the research behind the annual ranking of international financial centres as well as video and audio content for thebanker.com. She has reported from developed and emerging markets including Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the UK and Hong Kong, among many others, with both written and filmed pieces.
As part of her role, she regularly interviews finance ministers, central bank governors, policy makers and senior bankers. She represents The Banker at various international events, including the annual meetings of the IMF/World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, and has chaired numerous conferences and panel discussions on banking, trade and investment. Previously, she was in charge of Centaur Media’s specialist database on public private partnerships, which was tasked with providing data to the UK Government. She has also conducted research for organisations such as the Italian Chamber of Commerce and Industry for the UK and the Italian Trade Commission. Ms Pavoni holds a BSc in Economics and Finance from Ca' Foscari University of Venice.
Martin Sandbu has been writing about economics for the FT since 2009, when he joined the paper as Economics Leader Writer. He now writes the FT's Free Lunch. Before joining the FT, he worked in academia and policy consulting. He has taught and carried out research at Harvard, Columbia and the Wharton School, and has advised governments and NGOs on natural resources and economic development. He is the author of two books, one on business ethics and one on the eurozone, and has degrees from Oxford and Harvard.
Presented By (2)
Fitch Ratings is a leading provider of credit ratings, commentary and research. Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, Fitch Ratings offers global perspectives shaped by strong local market experience and credit market expertise. The additional context, perspective and insights we provide help investors to make important credit judgements with confidence.
Fitch Group is a global leader in financial information services with operations in more than 30 countries. In addition to Fitch Ratings, the group includes Fitch Solutions, a leading provider of credit market data, analytical tools and risk services; Fitch Learning, a provider of learning and development solutions for the global financial services industry; and BMI Research, a provider of country risk and industry analysis specializing in emerging and frontier markets. Fitch Group is majority-owned by Hearst.
The Financial Times is one of the world’s leading business news organisations, recognised internationally for its authority, integrity and accuracy. The FT has a record paying readership of one million, three-quarters of which are digital subscriptions. It is part of Nikkei Inc., which provides a broad range of information, news and services for the global business community.